The dram of a thirty year old handcrafted product from Scotland glowed amber in the fading flickers of flame emanating from the Stroller’s old river rock fireplace. The soothing sambas of Stan Getz and Astrud Gilberto waifed gently through the scents of wet yellow leafs woodsmoke and fresh baked blueberry pie.
The pie had been Stroller’s contribution to the potlatch that accompanied the weekly gathering of the South Franklin Street Sages investment seminar. The Sages agreed that although the pie had been superb and a perfect conclusion to the Cesaer Salad. ‘Bullwinkle’ Bourguignonne and crusty french bread (bought fresh that morning at Juneau’s Silverbow Bakery) it did not achieve the mythical standards of taste bud legend created by our friend and neighbor the ‘Jewels of the North’.
Predictably the conversation around the ‘investment’ table had turned to politics. Tonight’s main topic of discussion focused on the possible outcome of a few hotly contested State House campaigns around the state.
As in years past the outcome of most of this year’s House races has already been determined either due to lack of opposition or lack of enthusiasm and/or funding on the part of the incumbent’s opponent.
That leaves a handful of seats either vacated and up for grabs or in the case of a few an incumbent facing a strong opponent. It will be the victors in these races that will determine who organizes the new House leadership team who will fill the key power positions in that organization and ultimately who determine the personality priorities and direction of the State House for the next two years.
The Sages being well versed ‘citizens of the world’ and thus known experts in all things ‘politique’ were not shy in expressing their assessment of these key contests. They agreed that two factors will have an overriding influence on elections statewide especially in urban districts; Governor Sarah’s coattails and voter disgust with all lawmakers over revelations resulting from the ongoing federal corruption probe into Alaskan politics. Either one or both could determine the outcome of several close races.
First up for discussion was the Fairbanks delegation. They have always been subject to the volatile vagaries of a quirky Fairbanks electorate often resulting in unpredictable turnover. This year is no different.
Two of the area’s House seats are attracting attention. House District 7 where two term incumbent Republican Mike Kelly faces a well funded challenge from FNSB Parks and Recreation Director Karl Kassel and House District 9 where freshman incumbent. Democrat Scott Kawaski is being opposed by popular community activist Sue Hull.
Fairbanks Sages’ assessments of the races give Democrat Kassel the advantage in his effort to unseat Republican Representative Kelly in the Republican dominated District 7. By all accounts. Rep. Kelly is not mounting much of a re-election campaign. He has made little effort to raise money and even though he knows he’s in a close race took a couple weeks off to go moose hunting. This race is a possible pick up for the Democrats.
House District 9’s freshman incumbent. Democrat Scott Kawasaki is in a toss up against Republican challenger Sue Hull. Hull out polled Kawaski in the primary election by 428 votes out of the 2932 cast in the race. Kowasaki is a young energetic campaigner. Fairbanks Sages now believe he has closed the gap and may be even or slightly ahead. Turn out and coat tails will determine the out come.
In House District 2 four term Wrangell Republican Peggy Wilson co-chair of the House HESS committee is trying to beat back a challenge from Sitka Democrat Lisa Herwald. Herwald handily defeated Sitka Mayor Marko Dapcevich in the Democratic primary and was considered the front runner. The race has tightened in recent weeks and who has the advantage is in the eye of the beholder. Southeast Sages give incumbent Wilson a very slim advantage.
House District 4 pits incumbent freshman Andrea Doll a Democrat against former Borough Assembly member. Republican Cathy Munoz. Munoz has been favored due to her name recognition (daughter-in-law of artist Rie Munoz and daughter of former Juneau Senator Elton Engstrom) and her 2004 campaign for the State Senate against Kim Elton. Although she lost to Senator Elton she out polled him by a strong margin in this House District. Doll is a tireless campaigner and is closing the gap between herself and Munoz. The race is close but still favors Munoz a probable pick-up for Republicans.
House District 5 incumbent Republican Bill Thomas once again faces Democrat Tim June. Both men are commercial fishermen from Haines who competed against each other for the seat in 2004. Thomas won a squeaker by 76 votes. He beat Aaron Isaacs in 2006, 2988 to 2245 with Cordova voting for Thomas by a large margin. This year while Thomas was tied up in Juneau during the Special Session on the gas pipeline contract. June was working Cordova voters. The Sages believe this one is too close to call.
District 27 features freshman incumbent Bob Buch and his Republican opponent. Bob Lewis. Lewis a retired Account Manager for Proctor & Gamble made a strong showing in the Republican primary garnering 2278 votes. Rep. Buch won the Democratic primary with 1385 an 893 vote difference in the traditionally Republican stronghold. Lewis has an advantage and could defeat Rep. Buch in November.
District 28 features a repeat contest between Republican Craig Johnson and Democrat Valerie Baffone. In 2006. Johnson defeated Baffone by 205 votes to capture the House seat vacated by Lesil McGuire when she ran for and won the District N Senate seat. The district is solid Republican but Baffone is working the district hard and running an energetic campaign. The race will be close but the advantage goes to the incumbent. Rep. Johnson.
House District 29 is a seat left open by the retirement of House Majority Leader Ralph Samuels. Before Samuels made his surprise retirement announcement the Democrats had no serious plans to challenge for the seat. After Samuels’ announcement everybody scrambled and the contest is now between Anchorage School Board member Chris Tuck a Democrat and Ron Jordan a Republican. Coming off a recent successful campaign for the School Board. Tuck was initially favored to win but a complaint registered with the Division of Elections regarding Tuck’s legal name and residence has clouded his status on the ballot. The Division of Elections has turned their findings over to the Department of Law for review and Law has yet to issue its opinion on the matter. Regardless of the ruling if Tuck wins as expected this contest will probably end up in court.
House District 30 is also vacant as incumbent Kevin Meyers filed for the Senate seat being vacated by indicted Senator John Cowdery. First time candidate Charisse Millett a former Republican legislative staffer won the Republican primary by 61 votes in a surprisingly close race against Bruce Webb. Lynda Zaugg retired former Statewide Director of Probation and Parole won the Democratic primary. Zaugg ran a unsuccessful campaign for the seat in 2006. The District is solid Republican which should give Millett an advantage but Zaugg is a formidable energetic candidate and could pull off a victory. The race is too close to call.
So what’s going to happen? Presidential election years increase voter turnout by about 30%. . In Alaska especially in urban Alaska more of those voters tend to be Republicans. Governor Sarah’s national candidacy will motivate them and add a strong element of religious conservatism to the turnout. Those additional voters will determine close races and advantage GOP candidates. Coattails.
The Republicans currently hold a 23-17 advantage in the House (actually 24-16 when you count Nome Democrat Richard Foster who votes with the Republicans on all organizational issues). If these races break to the Republicans their numerical advantage increases but so do their potential organizational problems. Too many bodies vying for too few pieces of the pie. Fertile ground for some veteran Republican lawmakers left out of key leadership positions to entertain coalition talk with the Democrats.
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